📌 TOPINDIATOURS Breaking crypto: Crypto Rallies on January Capital Deployment as F

Crypto markets have posted a solid start to the new year, supported by renewed capital deployment and improving sentiment, according to Laser Digital in its latest market commentary.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin climbed from the $87,000 handle to around $93,000 while Ether rose from roughly $2,970 to $3,200. Earlier, Bitcoin traded around $92,966, up roughly 1.8% over the past 24 hours, extending its early-January recovery after a volatile December.

Laser Digital said the move likely reflects a combination of year-end dynamics and fresh positioning. December selling pressure, often linked to tax-loss harvesting, appears to have faded, while January has brought new capital back into the market.

Institutional demand is also showing signs of recovery with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording inflows on January 2 after consecutive outflows through much of December.

Derivatives activity reinforced the bullish tone. The desk reflected options positioning at year-end, including roughly 3,000 lots of January-end Bitcoin call options traded on the final day of December, suggesting expectations for higher prices into early 2026.

Asia Leads as Traders Watch US Sessions

Price action in recent weeks has followed a familiar pattern with strong performance during Asian trading hours and weaker follow-through during U.S. sessions. Laser Digital said a shift in this dynamic would be an important signal for the market.

Several strong U.S. sessions could prove constructive, potentially drawing sidelined investors back into risk assets. From a technical perspective, the desk pointed to $95,000 as a key resistance level for Bitcoin. A decisive break above that area could trigger further upside momentum, while failure to do so may keep prices range-bound in the near term.

Jobs Data Takes Center Stage

Macro factors are now firmly in focus. This week brings a flurry of U.S. labor market data, culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Consensus expectations call for headline job gains of around 55,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.5%.

Laser Digital expects the unemployment rate to matter more than the headline jobs number, echoing recent market behavior. With January rate cuts barely priced in, a weaker-than-expected report could push yields lower as markets reprice the path of monetary policy.

However, a higher unemployment rate could weigh on risk assets, as investors are largely positioned for a “Goldilocks” outcome for the U.S. economy.

Sentiment Improves as Fundamentals Hold

Broader sentiment across digital assets has also improved. Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of Mercuryo, said investors are returning to crypto as they position for the year ahead.

“Cryptocurrency markets are in the green as investors add digital gold to their portfolios,” Kozyakov said, noting renewed strength in Bitcoin alongside gains in Ethereum and Solana.

He added that while sentiment weakened late last year, fundamentals remain intact, supported by continued growth in underlying infrastructure and rising liquidity in areas such as stablecoins.

Geopolitical tensions remain a background risk, but market reaction so far has been muted. Laser Digital cautioned that spillover effects could still emerge, particularly in regions already under pressure, keeping macro uncertainty firmly in play as 2026 unfolds.

The post Crypto Rallies on January Capital Deployment as Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data: Laser Digital appeared first on Cryptonews.

🔗 Sumber: cryptonews.com

📌 TOPINDIATOURS Breaking crypto: How A Trader Lost $2 Million on Polymarket: 5 Mis

A trader has lost more than $2 million on Polymarket in just over a month, with a single position accounting for nearly 79% of the total loss.

As prediction markets gain traction across the crypto sector, more traders are shifting toward outcome-based platforms in search of new opportunities. However, this growing trend also raises concerns about whether participants fully understand the distinct risks associated with betting on real-world events, as opposed to price movements.

How a 51% Win Rate Still Led to Massive Losses

In a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain highlighted a trader, beachboy4, whose losses on Polymarket exceed $2 million. The post outlined the trader’s activity and risk exposure over a 35-day period.

According to the data, the trader placed 53 predictions during that time, recording 27 winning positions for a win rate of approximately 51%. Despite this, the overall performance was heavily impacted by several high-risk trades.

Lookonchain noted that the trader’s average bet size was around $400,000. The trader’s largest gain reached $935,800. Meanwhile, the biggest loss totaled $1.58 million, stemming from a single bet on Liverpool to win, purchased at a price of $0.66.

“Buying ‘YES’ at $0.66 does not mean: ‘Liverpool is likely to win’ It means: ‘I believe the true probability is higher than 66%.’ Polymarket is a probability market, not a bookmaker. This trader consistently treated Polymarket like binary sports betting, not probability trading. This single mistake is enough to explain most of the losses,” Lookonchain stressed.

The report further highlighted a recurring pattern in the trader’s losses, with entry prices across major losing positions clustered between $0.51 and $0.67. These trades typically offered a limited upside of 50% to 90%.

Yet, they carried a potential downside of 100%. Lookonchain described this as the “worst payoff structure” on Polymarket, combining capped gains with total-loss risk.

Furthermore, the trader did not employ basic risk management strategies, such as setting early exits, creating hedges, or applying probability-based stop-loss mechanisms. Instead, losing positions ran to zero, magnifying the impact of any incorrect prediction.

The pattern repeated across multiple markets, including NBA spreads and major soccer matches. Lookonchain noted the loss came from fundamental flaws, not just bad luck.

“The trader wasn’t unlucky. This wasn’t bad luck. This wallet had: Negative payoff asymmetry, No defined max loss per position, No edge in efficient markets, No probability discipline, Loss was inevitable.”

Lookonchain Highlights Common Mistakes in Prediction Market Trading

The case reflects how losses can accumulate in prediction markets despite a positive win rate. Lookonchain shared several practical rules to avoid similar outcomes.

•  Avoid high-price entries: Positions entered at elevated prices leave little margin for error. Traders should be especially cautious when buying above 0.55 and avoid entries at 0.65 or higher unless they possess a clear informational or analytical edge. 
• Enforce strict position sizing per outcome: Exposure to any one event should generally be limited to 3% to 5% of total capital. This approach ensures that even a complete loss does not materially damage long-term trading viability.
• Manage positions dynamically before resolution: Partial profit-taking can secure gains during favorable moves, while early exits can limit losses when odds deteriorate. Holding positions until final resolution is not always the optimal strategy.
• Compare win rate to break-even levels: Win rate alone is not enough. Compare results to the break-even rate. If performance falls below that level, stop and reassess.
• Remove consistently unprofitable markets: Repeated losses signal a lack of edge. Do not force recovery. Exclude those markets entirely to protect capital.

Broader Lessons on Risk and Leverage in Crypto Trading

The lessons from beachboy4 echo a broader pattern seen across recent crypto trading losses. Previously, BeInCrypto highlighted how leveraged traders such as James Wynn, Qwatio, and others suffered massive drawdowns after taking outsized risks in highly efficient markets.

These cases underscore recurring behavioral pitfalls in both crypto trading and prediction markets. Overconfidence following early wins, poor position sizing, and the absence of clear exit strategies frequently lead to significant losses.

Although disciplined traders can profit by using proper risk controls, most retail participants are unprepared for these structural dangers. As traders shift to outcome-based markets, the need for education on probability and risk management is greater than ever.

The post How A Trader Lost $2 Million on Polymarket: 5 Mistakes You Need to Stop Making appeared first on BeInCrypto.

🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com