📌 TOPINDIATOURS Hot crypto: Arthur Hayes Says $300B Liquidity Drain Is Driving Bit

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s recent pullback is less about crypto-specific weakness and more about a sharp contraction in dollar liquidity rippling through global markets.

In a post on X, the former BitMEX chief executive pointed to a roughly $300 billion drop in U.S. dollar liquidity over the past several weeks, driven largely by a $200 billion increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA).

Hayes suggested the U.S. government may be rebuilding cash buffers to fund spending in case of a potential shutdown, effectively pulling liquidity out of the financial system.

Dollar Liquidity Index Falls 7%, Weighing on Bitcoin

The contraction is visible in the USDLIQ index, which tracks broad dollar liquidity conditions.

The index has fallen nearly 7% over the past six months, sliding from highs near 11.8 million in August to around 10.88 million at the end of January, according to market data shown in Hayes’ post.

Bitcoin’s price weakness over the same period, Hayes argued, should not come as a surprise.

“$BTC falling not a surprise given the fall in $ liquidity,” Hayes wrote, linking the move directly to macro forces rather than sentiment shifts within the crypto market itself.

Liquidity conditions have long been a key driver for Bitcoin and other risk assets, with periods of expanding dollar supply often coinciding with strong rallies.

Conversely, when cash is absorbed by government accounts or tighter financial conditions, speculative assets tend to struggle as leverage unwinds and risk appetite fades.

Hayes’ comments come as Bitcoin has failed to regain momentum after recent pullbacks, even as some investors look for catalysts such as interest rate cuts or renewed inflows into spot ETFs.

Instead, the focus is shifting toward macro plumbing, including Treasury cash management and broader dollar availability, as a near-term headwind.

Bitcoin Slides as Fed Caution, Geopolitics Sap Risk Appetite

Bitcoin has fallen back below $89,000 after a short-lived rebound, pressured by tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical stress that have weighed on risk assets.

According to XS.com analyst Samer Hasn, a Federal Reserve stance that remains neutral to hawkish, combined with tensions in the Middle East, has reduced demand for speculative investments across crypto markets.

Market data points to weakening conviction among traders. CoinGlass figures show crypto futures open interest is down 42% from record highs, with attempted breakouts quickly reversed by sharp sell-offs.

At the same time, capital has rotated toward traditional havens such as gold and silver, leaving digital assets struggling to attract fresh inflows as volatility persists.

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaling little urgency to cut rates and geopolitical risks pushing investors toward tangible assets, analysts say Bitcoin remains a higher-risk trade until either policy eases or global tensions cool.

The post Arthur Hayes Says $300B Liquidity Drain Is Driving Bitcoin Lower appeared first on Cryptonews.

🔗 Sumber: cryptonews.com

📌 TOPINDIATOURS Breaking crypto: Ethereum Price Prediction: What To Expect From ET

The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a critical crossroads. After losing nearly 7% in January, ETH is closing the month in clear contrast to its historical trend. January’s median return stands near +32%, yet this year has moved in the opposite direction. February, meanwhile, has delivered median gains of around +15% since 2016.

The last time Ethereum entered February in a similar position was in 2025. That year, weakness extended into a 32%-37% monthly decline. Whether 2026 follows that path or breaks away from it will depend on how the technical structure, on-chain data, and institutional flows interact in the coming weeks.

Ethereum’s February History and a Falling Wedge Set Up a High-Stakes Test

Looking at long-term data helps frame expectations. Since 2016, Ethereum has posted a median February return of about +15%. It is not the strongest month, but it has delivered more gains than losses.

January tells a different story this year.

Instead of following its +32% median gain, ETH is closing January 2026 down roughly 7%. That puts it closer to 2025’s pattern, when early weakness carried into a February decline.

So Ethereum enters February at a crossroads.

However, not all analysts believe seasonality should be treated as a reliable guide.

The analytics team at B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, cautions against relying too heavily on historical patterns.

“Historical patterns are not something one should rely on blindly. Most of them exist for fairly obvious reasons,” they said.

They also added that ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts

“But there is no real reason to assume that February must bring growth. Based on this, it makes little sense to expect February to preserve any ‘historical’ bullish significance,” they highlighted.

They also point to last year as evidence:

“Even if we look at February 2025 as an example, Ethereum fell by 37%,” they said.

That skepticism is reflected in the current chart structure.

On the two-day timeframe, the ETH price remains inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows. It often signals weakening selling pressure and the potential for reversal.

In this case, the wedge is wide and volatile. A confirmed breakout would project a move of roughly 60%. That is a maximum target, not a forecast.

Momentum adds another layer.

Between December 17 and January 29, Ethereum is about to print lower lows on price. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near 37. RSI measures whether buyers or sellers control momentum.

When the price falls, but the RSI does not, selling pressure is weakening. This creates early bullish divergence.

If the next ETH price candle holds above $2,690 and RSI stabilizes, reversal odds improve as a lower low on price is confirmed. But confirmation is still missing. That makes on-chain data critical.

On-Chain Data Supports a Rebound, but Conviction Is Fading

On-chain metrics provide the first major validation test. One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). NUPL measures paper profits/losses.

Ethereum’s NUPL currently sits near 0.19, placing it in the “hope–fear” zone.

This level is important historically. In June 2025, NUPL fell near 0.17, while ETH traded around $2,200. Over the following month, the price surged toward $4,800, a gain of more than 110%.

So NUPL aligns with what the wedge and RSI are suggesting. Selling pressure is easing. Unrealized profits are shrinking. That creates room for upside.

But the signal is incomplete. True market bottoms usually occur when NUPL turns negative. In April 2025, it dropped near −0.22, marking full capitulation.

Today’s reading remains far above that, which means more selling room remains. This suggests relief rallies, not cycle resets.

HODLer behavior reinforces this mixed picture. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. Throughout January, this metric stayed positive.

Accumulation peaked on January 18 at roughly 338,700 ETH. By January 29, it had dropped to around 151,600 ETH. That represents a decline of more than 55%. So holders are still buying, but with far less conviction.

This fits with how B2BINPAY analysts describe the broader market environment.

“Demand and supply are currently balanced: buyers are willing to buy at roughly the same levels where sellers are willing to sell….The market needs a clear impulse either to the upside or to the downside for the picture to become clearer,” they said.

Taken together, NUPL and holder activity validate the rebound case, but show weakening conviction.

That shifts attention to the next deciding group: big money!

Whales Are Accumulating, but ETFs Are Still Missing

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Konten dipersingkat otomatis.

🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com