📌 TOPINDIATOURS Eksklusif crypto: Monero’s 35% Rally Faces Long-Squeeze Risk — But

The Monero price has surged more than 35% over the past seven days, adding another sharp leg higher in the last 24 hours alone. The move pushed XMR to a fresh all-time high near $598 before sellers stepped in, leaving the price hovering just below the price discovery zone.

While the trend still looks strong on the surface, multiple underlying signals suggest the rally may be entering a fragile phase. The key question now is whether Monero is consolidating before another push higher. Or, whether growing imbalance beneath the surface is setting the stage for a sharper shakeout.

Capital And Momentum Risks Explain Why Selling Pressure Hit At The High

Monero’s breakout from its ascending channel confirmed trend strength, but indicators are no longer perfectly aligned with price.

Chaikin Money Flow, which measures large capital flows, remains above zero, indicating that accumulation remains intact; however, CMF has trended slightly lower while price moved higher between mid-December and mid-January. This divergence explains why selling pressure appeared immediately after the all-time high, rather than the price accelerating further.

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At the same time, RSI, or the Relative Strength Index, which measures momentum, has pushed into overbought territory. The last time RSI reached similar levels was in early November, just before Monero corrected by roughly 33% despite the broader uptrend remaining intact. That historical setup does not guarantee a repeat, but it clearly defines risk when momentum becomes stretched at key highs.

This raises a critical question: if momentum is flashing caution, what is still driving buyers to stay aggressive?

Sentiment And Spot Flows Are Strong — But Are They Creating A Trap?

Monero’s rally has been heavily sentiment-driven. Positive social sentiment surged from roughly 11.6 in late December to above 60 by January 11, a rise of more than 400%. That spike closely mirrors the recent price acceleration, showing that attention and narrative have played a major role in pushing XMR higher.

Spot flows support this view. Exchange outflows, which signal net buying, have more than doubled in a span of a few days. From $1.06 million earlier in January to roughly $2.73 million recently, even with a few brief inflow days in between. This confirms that buyers are still active, primarily with the sentimental trigger at play.

However, sentiment peaked in early November at slightly higher levels than today, right before the price corrected sharply. The current sentiment peak is lower. Yet, the similarity in structure brings back a clear historical memory (highlighted by the RSI earlier). Strong sentiment can fuel rallies, but it can also mark local exhaustion when combined with overheated momentum.

That leaves one final layer to examine: positioning risk.

Long Positioning Skews Risk Lower If The Monero Price Slips

Derivatives data shows that long positioning is heavily crowded. Over the next 30 days on Bybit alone, cumulative long liquidation leverage sits near $22.1 million. The short liquidation leverage is closer to $5.4 million. That more than 4x imbalance means downside moves for XMR can accelerate quickly (long squeeze) if the price loses key support levels.

The first pressure point sits near $554 (align with the point where long liquidations begin). A break below that level opens the door to long liquidations toward $502 and $454. In a deeper unwind, a move toward the $411 region becomes mechanically possible, even without a broader trend reversal.

On the upside, Monero needs a clean daily close above the $593–$598 zone to neutralize liquidation risk and reset momentum. Until that happens, strength remains real, but increasingly fragile.

The post Monero’s 35% Rally Faces Long-Squeeze Risk — But That’s Not the Only Threat appeared first on BeInCrypto.

🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com

📌 TOPINDIATOURS Hot crypto: Gold Rallies While Bitcoin Falters as Fed Pressure Sha

Gold and silver surged during the Asian market open, while Bitcoin struggled to maintain momentum amid escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Trump administration, triggering a flight to traditional safe havens.

The divergence intensified after the Department of Justice’s actions against Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked concerns about central bank independence, with gold climbing 1.72% and silver soaring over 4.5% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin retreated sharply from $92,000 to $90,000.

The crisis unfolded after the DOJ issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal charges against Powell on Friday, which the Fed Chair characterized as retaliation for refusing to align monetary policy with President Trump’s preferred interest-rate trajectory.

Markets are now pricing political rates instead of data-driven policy, fundamentally altering the risk landscape for both traditional and digital assets.

Political Interference Triggers Capital Rotation Into Hard Assets

The DOJ investigation represents an unprecedented threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence, which has remained intact for 113 years, according to QCP Asia analysts.

They warned that any erosion of confidence in central bank autonomy poses a material risk to institutional credibility.

Powell explicitly stated that the probe stems directly from his refusal to cut rates when Trump demanded, marking what analysts describe as an open war that has proven exceptionally damaging for risk assets.

“History suggests that such narratives are sufficient to prompt capital rotation into alternative stores of value,” QCP Asia noted in their January 12 market analysis.

Both gold and silver responded as the market’s default hedges against political and institutional instability, with their overnight surge extending already constructive momentum.

Bitcoin Fails to Capitalize on Fiat-System Risk Narrative

Bitcoin initially participated in the safe-haven rally but failed to sustain a close above $92,000, retracing sharply toward $90,000 at the European open, a pattern that mimicked much of Q4 2024.

The inability to capitalize on bullish narratives shows a structural breakdown Bitcoin has faced since October 10, as optimism around a Q1 breakout has rapidly faded among institutional traders.

QCP analysts observed significant reductions in long-dated call exposure last week, including unwinding of BTC-30JAN26-98k-C and BTC-27FEB26-100k-C positions.

Portions of BTC-30JAN26-100k-C were rolled into BTC-27MAR26-125k-C, suggesting traders are pushing out bullish expectations rather than maintaining conviction in a near-term rally.

US-hours selling pressure, while less concentrated than prior weeks, remains persistent as uncertainty around supply overhangs continues to cap upside potential.

Retail Fear Intensifies as Smart Money Bets on Further Decline

Brazilian research firm Investe Mais identified recurring retail capitulation behavior through the SOPR Short Term Holder chart, revealing short-term investors have been selling at a loss over the past 70 days despite Bitcoin’s structural uptrend.

Retail sentiment approached Extreme Fear at year-end, with the indicator reaching approximately 0.98, matching levels from November 2022 when Bitcoin traded around $16,000.

While Bitcoin reached higher highs throughout 2024-2025 in a clear uptrend, short-term realizations started declining since breaking the old all-time high, with periodic sales at a loss during high-fear episodes.

Smart money traders tracked by Nansen remained net short on Bitcoin for a cumulative $127 million, adding $1.6 million worth of shorts in the past 24 hours alone.

The relative appeal of crypto looks increasingly challenged when set against precious metals’ resilience and equities at all-time highs, compared to Bitcoin’s 30% regression from its 2025 peak.

Near-term volatility risks remain elevated ahead of critical macro catalysts, with markets expected to be…

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🔗 Sumber: cryptonews.com